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Our interest rate prediction

19th March 2019

Inflation holds steady against a backdrop of deal or no deal

Only a few days remain until the 29th of March with still no decision made on how we exit the EU.

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee will meet on the 21st of March to discuss the base rate, probably with an expectation that things would be clearer by now.

The Bank has for quite some time had plans to cater for several outcomes regarding our future trading with the EU and those remain in place.

However, inflation is running at the target rate of 2%, wage growth is strong, and unemployment low. The economy has remained buoyant, with Phillip Hammond explaining in his Spring statement that revenues are up, and surpluses have been created.

All that remains is of course the final decision. This week will probably see a third vote on Teresa May’s deal, however it now looks unlikely that the Bank will change the base rate this time round, preferring to wait for a decision on direction.

Prediction – No Change

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